Coverage — held vs expected, by year

We publish our own coverage gaps so nobody has to guess. Expected/year is a rough baseline drawn from US DOL aggregate WARN WARN — Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act Federal law requiring 60-day advance notice of large layoffs or plant closures100+ employee firms, 50+/one-third site thresholds — WARN data captures only a FRACTION of layoffs; distributed cuts are invisibleOfficial source ↗ reporting (~3,000 notices/year in a normal cycle; 2020-2021 spiked well above baseline). Below is what we currently hold vs that baseline. State-agency direct ingest — a durable long-term path — is on the roadmap and is a required prerequisite for any cross-source observation (e.g. layoffs + visa filings) at the employer level.

Year	Held (rows)	Expected (est.)	Coverage	Sources
2020	14,436	20,000	72.2%	Historical archive
2021	1,575	4,500	35.0%	Historical archive
2022	403	3,000	13.4%	Historical archive
2023	0	3,000	0.0%	—
2024	5	3,000	0.2%	Live (warnfirehose)
2025	0	3,000	0.0%	—
2026	269	3,000	9.0%	Live (warnfirehose)
2027	5	3,000	0.2%	Live (warnfirehose)

Methodology: Held counts are LIVE per-request rows from the warn_all view grouped by effective_date year — this table drifts as our WARN WARN — Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act Federal law requiring 60-day advance notice of large layoffs or plant closures100+ employee firms, 50+/one-third site thresholds — WARN data captures only a FRACTION of layoffs; distributed cuts are invisibleOfficial source ↗ ingest daemon lands new notices.

Denominator basis: Expected/year is a flat estimate of ~3,000 notices/year for 2022 onward, per the US DOL WARN WARN — Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act Federal law requiring 60-day advance notice of large layoffs or plant closures100+ employee firms, 50+/one-third site thresholds — WARN data captures only a FRACTION of layoffs; distributed cuts are invisibleOfficial source ↗ factsheet baseline for a normal cycle. 2020 (~20,000) and 2021 (~4,500) reflect the COVID spike + recovery tail. We do NOT prorate 2026's estimate for the partial year — the target is "expected by year-end," which is the more conservative-honest choice (it reads worse for us and stops the denominator from silently inflating our coverage % as the year progresses). The historical archive covers 1987-2022 with strong coverage through 2020, tail through mid-2022. Live rows come from the warnfirehose.com free tier (~25 requests/day × 25 rows; a small slice of the true baseline).

A cross-source claim (layoffs COMBINED with visa filings for a named employer) is gated on ≥60% nationwide coverage and is NOT rendered on this site today.

2022-2026 aggregate: 677 held / 15,000 expected = 4.5% (computed live from this table).

WARN WARN — Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act Federal law requiring 60-day advance notice of large layoffs or plant closures100+ employee firms, 50+/one-third site thresholds — WARN data captures only a FRACTION of layoffs; distributed cuts are invisibleOfficial source ↗ Act — workers affected per month

Coverage: Live notices via warnfirehose.com (current through ~2 days behind source); historical archive through July 2022. State-agency direct ingest is on the roadmap for a durable long-term feed.